I See through Everything

Chapter 269: Chapter 144: A Prosperous Year

The agreement between the Feed Association and Hailufeng Company had no direct impact on ordinary people, but it did have closely related indirect effects.

This was because the price of fish meal affected the price of feed, and the price of feed, in turn, affected the prices of aquatic products, poultry, and pork.

Among these, the most affected were aquatic products.

This is because aquaculture feed typically requires a fish meal content of around 50-70%, whereas the fish meal content in pig and poultry feed is only between 1-5%.

And within the farming industry, feed costs account for about 50-80% of total expenses.

Looking at it this way, it was clear that the price of fish meal determined the price of aquatic products, while its impact on the cost of pork and poultry was relatively small.

As a result, starting in early February, the market prices for fish, shrimp, and crab feed plummeted, dropping by an average of 15-25%.

This level of price drop would bring about an astonishing change in the profitability of domestic aquaculture.

The Lingnan Aquatic Products Association had already conducted relevant studies and was generally bearish on the future prices of domestic aquatic products. They predicted that wholesale and retail market prices for aquatic products would fall by about 5-10%.

At the same time, aquaculture associations in other provinces also issued announcements, warning farmers not to blindly expand their operations to avoid widespread losses due to market price fluctuations and overcapacity.

After all, domestic consumer spending was relatively limited at this stage, and the consumption of aquatic products wasn’t going to skyrocket overnight. If production expanded too quickly, it could easily lead to overcapacity.

Even if expansion was necessary, it had to be adjusted gradually.

However, the expansion for one particular type of fish was enormous.

In Lingnan, Min Nan, Guangxi Province, and Qiongzhou—the four regions most suitable for large-scale farming of Egyptian Catfish, also known as the "South China F4"—all the major domestic feed producers scrambled to establish Egyptian Catfish farms.

They either expanded their own farms or entered into cooperative farming agreements with villagers near their feed mills.

These domestic feed producers even skipped the Spring Festival, working overtime to expand their Egyptian Catfish farming operations, hoping to secure cheap raw materials as soon as possible.

It was estimated that by June of next year, the South China Region would have developed a massive production capacity: an annual output of 8 million tons of fresh Egyptian Catfish, 3 million tons of fish meal, and 880,000 tons of fish oil.

However, this massive capacity would also consume approximately 24 million tons of corn, soybean meal, and other fodder, putting considerable pressure on the domestic supply of plant-based feed.

This was also why Xue Hua wanted to try growing Purple Alfalfa himself. Purple Alfalfa could also be used as feed for Egyptian Catfish, and a very good one at that.

While some feed producers were fervently expanding their Egyptian Catfish farming operations, a number of other feed producers, who had previously relied on imported fish meal, did not rush to start their own Egyptian Catfish farms. Instead, they opted to purchase fish meal directly from Haida Group.

Aohua Group and Yuehai Group, for example, had no plans to enter the Egyptian Catfish farming industry.

After all, many could do the math: the current domestic demand for fish meal capped out at around 4 million tons per year.

If production of Egyptian Catfish Meal reached 3 million tons, adding another 400,000 tons of other domestic fish meal and 600,000 tons of imported deep-sea fish meal would bring the total to the 4-million-ton mark.

Haida Group had already claimed more than half of the Egyptian Catfish Meal production. The remaining million-plus tons were divided among Hailufeng Company, Hengxing Group, and Tongwei Group.

As such, if other feed producers were to enter the market, it would only lead to severe overcapacity, and no one would make any money.

With the exception of Hailufeng Company, which was sitting comfortably in its advantageous position, the other companies didn’t dare to expand blindly. Instead, they privately discussed their respective production capacities to avoid undermining each other later on.

This round of expansion in the feed industry seemed to have stimulated the coastal areas of the South China Region, shaking the economy out of its previous slump and revitalizing it.

...

By February 11th, the day of the Southern "Little New Year," the last batch of gifts sent out by Hailufeng Company had been delivered to its clients via Shunfeng Express’s container trucks and cargo planes.

「Shanghai.」

As a local, Zhao Xinyan looked at the emptying streets and knew the New Year was upon them.

Just as she rode her bicycle back to the entrance of her residential complex, a voice called out.

"Ms. Zhao, you have a package," the middle-aged security guard in the office quickly called out. The main reason he recognized Zhao Xinyan was that she came to pick up packages every other day.

"Oh? Right, I almost forgot." Zhao Xinyan then remembered that the gift Hailufeng Company sent to its long-time customers had arrived.

After grabbing the Shunfeng Express package from the shelf in the security office, she muttered to herself, "They used Shunfeng Express? I was expecting China Post or one of the budget couriers."

Borrowing a box cutter from the security office, she opened the outer packaging. Inside was a large, vacuum-sealed bag of Morchella. They still looked very fresh; the ice pack hadn’t even melted, which was to be expected since it was winter.

Suddenly, a voice spoke up beside her.

"Sister Zhao, you bought Morchella! A bag this big must have cost four or five hundred, right?"

Zhao Xinyan turned her head and adjusted her glasses to get a better look at the speaker. It was the son of her next-door neighbor, who was also looking for a package. "Oh, it’s Tianrui. Perfect timing. Here, take half of this with you."

"I can’t possibly take something this expensive. My mom would get on my case," Dong Tianrui said, shaking his head vigorously.

Zhao Xinyan sliced open the vacuum-sealed bag, poured about half of the contents into the shipping pouch, and handed it to Dong Tianrui. "Just tell Sister Hong it’s from me. She helps watch my kid all the time, so this is nothing. Besides, someone gave it to me as a gift. Take it."

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