Surgery Godfather

Chapter 2192: Chapter 1436: Intuition_2

"How did you determine the thirty-second lead time?"

"Simulation tests. We ran three thousand sets of simulated data and found that thirty seconds was the optimal balance point. If the lead time is too short, there’s not enough time to intervene; if it’s too long, the false alarm rate increases. At thirty seconds, the product of sensitivity and specificity is maximal."

"What’s the false alarm rate?"

"8.3%, meaning one out of every twelve prediction triggers is a false positive. But the cost of a false positive is very small, just an extra light stimulus without side effects."

Yang Ping nodded, signaling him to continue. Tang Shun truly was a talented multidisciplinary professional; he could write algorithms himself.

Tang Shun flipped to the next page: "On hardware optimization, I compressed the data dimensions from the original two hundred and fifty-six dimensions to sixty-four dimensions using principal component analysis combined with t-SNE for dimensionality reduction. The precision loss mainly comes from the compression process, but we’ve compensated for it on the model layer by using deeper network structures to extract features."

"Is there enough training data?"

"No," Tang Shun said honestly, "the M7 data only spans five weeks, and the sample size is very small. I’m using transfer learning, starting with pre-training on public datasets of rats, then fine-tuning with M7 data."

Yang Ping furrowed his brow: "There’s a significant difference in the electrical activity patterns between rats and primates. Can the transfer learning effect be guaranteed?"

Tang Shun truthfully replied, "It cannot be guaranteed. Therefore, I’ve added an adaptive module to the model, which can dynamically adjust weights based on M7’s real-time feedback. If the transferred features are not applicable, the model will gradually dilute them and rely more on M7’s own data."

Yang Ping was silent for a while. Then he stood up, walked to the whiteboard, and stared at the complex network structure diagram.

"Tang Shun, do you know where the flaw in this plan lies?"

Tang Shun hesitated for a moment.

"Flaw..." He thought for a while, "The adaptive module requires online learning, which means the model will keep changing. This change itself may bring instability. If M7’s state suddenly changes, such as due to infection, stress, or drug reaction, the model may not adapt in time."

"Right, and what else?"

"Also..." Tang Shun’s furrowed brows tightened even more, "The internal state of an LSTM network is a black box; we can’t see why it made a certain prediction. If it’s wrong, we don’t know where the error is, hence can’t manually correct it."

"Exactly," Yang Ping nodded again, "and there’s one more crucial thing."

Tang Shun looked at him, waiting for the answer.

Yang Ping said, "You assume M7’s future is predictable, but life is not a machine. M7’s mood today, last night’s sleep, even what it dreamt about could affect its electrical activity today. These variables can’t be quantified, nor can they be inputted into the model. Your prediction is essentially based on the assumption that ’yesterday was like the day before, so today is like yesterday’. But this assumption remains fragile in biological systems."

Tang Shun was silent. He stared at the network diagram on the whiteboard and suddenly felt those lines and nodes become unfamiliar. The intricate structure he had spent forty-eight hours building revealed cracks in its foundation with Yang Ping’s words.

"Then what should we do?" he asked.

"It’s not about not using it," Yang Ping said, "it’s about knowing its boundaries when you use it. Treat it as an aid, not as the truth. The final decision must be made by humans. The model tells you ’there might be an anomaly’, and you judge ’whether it’s really an anomaly’."

He returned to the desk, took a file from the drawer, and handed it to Tang Shun.

"This is the clinical observation guide I’ve written. Once M7 enters a stable period, we’ll start preparing for human trials. The guide includes a rule that all predictions based on the model must be independently confirmed by more than two doctors before execution."

Tang Shun took the file and quickly skimmed through it. His gaze stopped on a particular page where a sentence was marked in red pen: "Technology cannot replace judgment, data cannot replace experience."

"I’ve taken note," he said.

In the evening, Alina was cooking dinner in the institute’s dining room kitchen.

The institute’s dining room had a self-service kitchen. Alina laid out the checkered tablecloth she brought from Germany on the counter, then took out the ingredients from the thermal bag—German sausages, sauerkraut, mashed potatoes, and a steaming hot apple pie.

"Mrs. Alina," Lina somehow ran over and stuck her head in, "need any help?"

"Help me call everyone," Alina said, "just say dinner’s ready."

Lina turned to call people. She first went to the laboratory; Hans and Eva were discussing data when they heard the words "dinner". Hans’s stomach immediately growled loudly. Eva glanced at him, the corners of her mouth slightly moved—her way of expressing "smile".

Then Lina went to the animal room, where Fritz was sitting beside M7’s cage, holding that Journey to the West book, reading the Chapter where Sun Wukong battles the White Bone Demon three times.

"Fritz, it’s dinner time."

"I’m keeping M7 company; it needs someone tonight."

"Mrs. Alina says M7 also needs you to eat, so you have the strength to keep it company."

Fritz hesitated for a moment. He closed the book, stood up, and followed Lina to the dining room. At the door, he looked back at M7. M7 was lying in the cage, eyes half-closed, hind legs slightly curled. Its breathing was very steady, as if it was having a good dream.

"I’ll be back soon, buddy!" Fritz said, closing the door.

The small room in the institute’s dining room was crowded with people.

Yang Ping sat in a corner chair, with a plate of sausage and mashed potatoes in front of him. He did not use the knife and fork but just watched the others. Weber and Alina sat together, sharing a piece of apple pie, occasionally exchanging a glance without needing to speak. Hans and Lina were arguing over the dialect term for "sausage" in German; Hans said Bavarians called it "Wurst", and Lina said Berliners called it "Kiezwurst". They argued heatedly, yet finished all the food on their plates. Eva sat alone on the other side, eating slowly, chewing each bite for a long time, as if tasting some complex flavor.

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